Sunday, August 28, 2005

Fw: The Chen-Ivan Alliance

 
The Emerging Chen-Ivan Alliance

By Anwaar Hussain

An attack on Iran by the United States of America in the not too distant a future, with or without a staged 9/11, is no more a vague possibility. Having been already addressed, the reasons for the possible war from either the aggressor or the victim’s stand point are not the aim of this paper. What is of interest here is that many an analysts are now openly talking of the possibility of a 3rd World War if that does happen. Are they merely being prophets of doom or is their material basis for their omens? Let us analyze in plain and simple English language.

A world war can only take place when it involves two are more of the great/super powers. So far the only super power the United States of America (read the coalition), absent the other great powers who are watching the show from the side lines, is unilaterally engaged in waging its own wars pursuant to its ‘national interests’ as defined by the current US administration-- reason thereby of the wars so far failing to qualify to be termed as world wars.

As singly no great power at the moment has the military muscle to challenge the US, the US attack on Iran will spill over to a world war status only if any combination of the remaining great powers i.e. France, Germany, Russia and China decide to jump into the fray to defend their own ‘national interests’. The European Union states of France and Germany having important diplomatic and economic ties with Tehran because of the EU being Iran’s biggest trading partner, will likely either be neutral, or may eventually chip in on the side of the US led coalition when the war theatre starts expanding from the ‘controlled’ to the ‘uncontrolled’--owing to their being Western Powers ultimately.

That leaves China and Russia—the Chen and Ivan. Let us see what do they have at stake in the region and do they have a reason for jumping together in the ensuing melee? ..........................................................................................................................
 
 
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